Don’t try too hard to read political tea leaves

In just over one week, Wisconsin voters will head to the polls for the primary election. On the ballot are races for the local congressional seat, a U.S. Senate seat and a republican primary for Governor. In that race, former Lt. Governor Rebecca Kleefisch is running against businessman Tim Michels. Political pundits are watching that race closely, suggesting it could portend a potential faceoff between Donald Trump and Mike Pence as they flirt with a possible presidential run. Trump has endorsed Michels and will attend a Wisconsin rally for him on Friday. Pence has endorsed Kleefisch, pitting him against his former boss. Apparently it’s Trump vs. Pence in Wisconsin. But let’s not try too hard to read the tea leaves here. A Michels win probably doesn’t tell us much more about Trump’s support in Wisconsin than a Kleefisch win tells us about Mike Pence’s chances. People vote for many different reasons, often personal ones. There are many factors that determine how we cast a ballot, not just the endorsement of a former President. Are we really to believe that Pence can win in Wisconsin just because voters choose Kleefisch? Is his endorsement any more powerful than that of her former boss, Scott Walker? Let’s not assume too much about the future of the Republican party based on who wins the primary for Governor. Remember, the names on the ballot are Kleefisch and Michels, not Trump and Pence. Who the voters choose as the next candidate for Governor may be the result of who they think can best do the job more so than who Trump or Pence want to win.